S&P 500 FORECAST
Want to know how much you will win or lose if you buy stocks now?
This app tells how much US stocks will return over the next ten years. In the top chart above, you can see the magenta line of the Expected 10-year return for stocks was closely followed by the Actual 10-year return for stocks. Since 1947, there was a 90% correlation, which means that you can be 90% confident in the 10-year forecast.
How can the 10-year forecast be 90% reliable?
The US economy has been managed by the Federal Reserve (as authorized by US Congress) primarily via modulation of the growth of debt by interest rates and the purchase (and sale) of US Treasuries and mortgage backed securities. Increasing debt grew the economy and the decreasing debt shrank the economy. The Federal Reserve had the responsibility to maintain a slow and steady growth of the economy and history has shown that by steering debt they steered the economy. The total debt was a relatively smooth "line" compared to the stock market because people couldn't pay off their debts quickly, but they could sell stocks very quickly. The stock market went up when investors hoped the economy would grow and stocks went down when investors feared the economy would decline. Since the total debt was a relatively smooth line (the red line in the lower chart) which rose with the economy, the stock market (the blue line in the lower chart) could be compared to the total debt to show when US stocks were relatively high or low. When the US stock market was relatively low, the subsequent ten years of actual stock returns were high. When the stock market was relatively high, the following ten years of actual stock returns were low. In the short-term the stock market was often irrational, but in the long-term the stock market has trended with debt. The red line in the second chart has been set to touch the stock market blue line at exactly the points where the Expected 10-year return for stocks was zero. So, when the blue line was at or above the red line, stocks were "expensive." The green line is parallel to the red line and it was set to touch the lower extremes of the blue line of the stock market.​ The red and green lines are in no way dependent on stock prices. Also, the stock market is not limited by the red and green lines. For example, if a giant asteroid is seen on a collision course with the earth, then the stock market will crash far below the green line. If the Federal Reserve (or any central bank with the ability to create money) buys US stocks, they can drive up the US stock market far above the red line. (The central bank of Japan has been buying Japanese stocks and it has succeeded in driving up the Japanese stock market.)
Nasdaq Forecast Advanced
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The famous investor, Warren Buffet, has often said that stocks go up over time. But how long do you have to wait? In one day the probability is about 50% that stocks will go up. In a month the probability is 55%. In two months, its 60%. In three months its 70%. After that the probability rises slowly. In five years the probability is 73%. In ten years the probability is 76%. In twenty years the probability is 80%. In 30 years the probability is 96% that stocks will go up (https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2017/12/06/the-latest-look-at-the-total-return-roller-coaster). These probabilities are based on past performance and there is no guarantee against a giant meteor or super-volcano or plague or a super earth quake, so how do you not worry if stocks will go down? Frequently, the stock market goes down and people wonder if they should sell or buy. Usually, stocks recover quickly, unless there's a recession, so the most important fact you need to know is whether the economy is growing or in recession. One of the most reliable economic indicators, employment, is used by this app to give a DOWN warning of the next recession. The Advanced app uses a leading indicator, the Treasuries yield spread (ten-year yield minus two-year yield), which has always become negative before every recession since the 1980s and it could be argued that it caused the recessions. These apps use stock price moving averages to calculate when the stock market is trending UP again. These apps don't access or share your personal information.
This app uses weekly data for Unemployment and daily data for calculation of the deviation from trend.
Download Nasdaq Forecast Advanced.
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Highest Accuracy Free App
Accurate forecasting of the stock market depends on reliable economic and stock market data sourced directly from the US Federal Reserve Bank at St Louis. S&P 500 Value & Trend Forecast was designed to give early warning of recession because that is when investors lose the most. When this app makes an UP forecast, the stock market is expected to go up about 70% of the time. Many times, stocks have gone down when the economy was healthy and then stocks rallied much higher. There's no guarantee that will be true in the future, but every nation prints money to spur economic growth.
For the free app get S&P 500 Value & Trend Forecast.
(Photo by Jauher Ali Nasir, https://www.flickr.com/photos/jauhernasir/)
Our Features
S&P 500 Value & Trend Advanced can save you from a lot of worry and fear that comes from not knowing or from reading too much financial news. The most successful investors don't change their minds every day. Instead, they make their decisions based on sound data with a solid track record. The US government has worked hard to make this data available and this app does a lot of calculations on that data to make high accuracy stock market forecasts available to everyone.
Built-in Analytics
All of these forecast apps
use economic data to calculate stock market forecasts, so it shows when the economy is healthy or not. Even if you don't invest in stocks, your job or business probably depends on a growing economy. When this app makes a DOWN forecast, you might not want to change jobs or take a big loan.
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Download the app for
Nasdaq Forecast Advanced
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Home-screen Widget
Each version of the app has a home-screen widget that is updated daily to always give you the latest forecast of the stock market.
Touch the widget to open the app and you can see when the economic data was last updated by the US Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis.
Reading financial news can take a lot of time and leave you confused. Pundits and financial advisors have lousy track records when it comes to predictions. This app beats them all. Download Nasdaq Forecast Advanced and see how easy it is to always know what the smart money knows.
Triple Leveraged S&P 500
Simulation of a triple leveraged S&P 500 portfolio that uses the same analytics as Stock Forecaster.
This simulated portfolio had more than triple the performance of the S&P 500, so you wonder if the future performance will continue to amaze. Download this app and find out.
Triple Leveraged Nasdaq 100
Simulation of a triple leveraged Nasdaq 100 portfolio that achieved astronomical gains during bull markets and avoided total loss during recessions.
Download this app and be amazed.
Questions?
FAQs
Where can I get S&P 500 Forecast?
This app is at the Google Play store. https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.stocktrendadvanced
Do these apps share my personal info?
No. These apps don't access or share your personal info.
I’ve seen other Apps that claim to forecast stocks. What makes yours the best?
The long-term forecast was shown to have 90% correlation with actual stock returns since 1947. The prototype of this app was 100% accurate in the first six months since launch. These apps reveal the economic indicators and strategy used to calculate forecasts. The method that goes to cash during recession was optimized using 100 years of data. These apps also tell the probabilities according to 35 years of backtesting. They contain a chart comparing the forecasts and the actual stock prices. There is a chart to simulate a hypothetical investment in stocks using "buy and hold" verses a strategy of holding stocks only when this app makes an UP forecast (and going to cash when this app makes a DOWN forecast). The Advanced versions of these apps also include the Treasuries yield spread, which historically gave the earliest warning of recession. The Treasuries yield spread was required by the Nasdaq app because these stocks had a history of rapid and severe declines at the beginning of the recessions in the years 2000 and 2008. Without this indicator the simulated portfolio of triple leveraged Nasdaq 100 (TQQQ) failed to go to cash quickly and suffered almost total loss
( https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.tqqqforecast ). Yet with the Treasuries yield spread indicator, a simulated portfolio of triple leveraged Nasdaq 100 (TQQQ) did switch into cash soon enough to avoid catastrophic loss and then it rallied with amazing gains ( https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.tqqqadvanced ).
The Triple Leveraged ETF sim UPRO does not have the Treasuries yield spread indicator, but it wasn't needed because the S&P 500 didn't crash as rapidly as the Nasdaq. This simulated portfolio had super high performance, but theoretically it could crash all the way to zero. Download the app and see for yourself. https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.uprosim